Gibran and "Historical Fracture"

In early November, several police generals, including a former chief of police long known to be close to Jokowi, were declared suspects in a wiretapping case involving the President.

Shortly thereafter, dozens of members of parliament from six factions proposed an opinion right, while three officials from the PSI party, led by Gibran's brother, resigned from the party.

These fragments do not influence each other. For instance, the wiretapping case has no legal relation to Gibran's educational documentation, and the presumption of innocence still applies to the suspects.

However, everything erodes three key supports: legal legitimacy, protective networks, and political backing.

When these three weaken almost simultaneously, a position that appears secure can crumble faster than anyone anticipates.

The political landscape also shifted. During the first two years of administration, the closeness of Prabowo and Jokowi was often seen as a guarantee of security for Gibran's position.

Coalition parties held back, and the notion of impeachment voiced by several retired military officials since 2025 had never significantly progressed in parliament.

Now, the previously silent parties started reviewing the Supreme Court's decision, while Gerindra delayed its stance until the next session opens. In politics, a delay in positioning from allies often carries more meaning than an attack from opponents.

Irreparable Legality

Max Weber reminds us that in a modern state, power derives its legitimacy from adherence to rules, not from popularity or lineage.

This is the crux of Gibran's issue. Tens of millions of votes in the 2024 elections granted him electoral legitimacy, but that legitimacy rests on legal candidacy requirements.

When those requirements are declared invalid by the judiciary, no amount of popularity can repair that breach.

This issue also concerns institutional authority.

If judgments regarding the qualifications for office are left unaddressed, the public will conclude that the law only applies to those without power.

Therefore, whatever path is chosen, whether resignation or impeachment, the resolution must be grounded in the constitution, not in closed-door lobbying.

Is Gibran aware that impeachment may be imminent? Only he knows.