The Solo-Hambalang Axis Relationship Enters a New Phase Following Gibran's Resignation

Prabowo May Become Jokowi's Political Opponent in 2029

Although Jokowi expresses support for Prabowo's government, the possibility of changed political relations between the two figures remains open.

Dedi Kurnia Syah, Executive Director of Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO), even posits that Prabowo could potentially enter the list of parties opposing Jokowi's political interests.

According to Dedi, Gibran's exit marks a pivotal moment that alters the positions of both factions.

If previously Jokowi and Prabowo had mutual interests in maintaining the government formed from the 2024 elections, moving forward, both could have their own political agendas.

"Prabowo is sure to be seen as an adversary to Solo, similar to Jokowi in the eyes of the PDI-P. Therefore, Jokowi is likely to focus on the PSI, preparing to face Prabowo in the elections and the 2029 presidential race," Dedi told Kompas.com on Thursday.

Jamiluddin assesses that the Hambalang-Solo relationship may still be upheld in the form of formal communication and cooperation.

However, both factions need to consider their own political interests heading toward 2029.

For instance, Jokowi could utilize the PSI as a vehicle to sustain his political networks and influence.

Meanwhile, Prabowo has the freedom to strengthen the government coalition without continuously accommodating the political interests of the Jokowi family through the Vice Presidential position.

Prabowo Needs to Maintain Relations While Strengthening Government Control

Jamiluddin suggests that Prabowo must find a balance between consolidating power and political stability.

Gibran's resignation could become a moment for Prabowo to enhance the independence of his government.

"President Prabowo needs to balance political stability with asserting his authority as head of state. This situation opens avenues for Prabowo to diminish the shadow of former President Joko Widodo's influence without triggering open conflict that could disrupt government operations," said Jamiluddin.

"In this way, Prabowo can strengthen the independence and control of the government," he added.

Nevertheless, this does not require creating open opposition to Jokowi.

One area that needs safeguarding is the independence of legal processes concerning issues affecting Jokowi's circle.

According to Jamiluddin, legal processes, including allegations of illegal wiretapping involving former Police Chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo and administrative issues regarding Gibran, should proceed without political intervention.

This approach is crucial so that shifts in power configurations do not create the impression that legal processes are leveraged to eliminate certain political groups.

Additionally, Prabowo has the opportunity to consolidate the cabinet and coalition in ways that align with his government's agenda.

However, this restructuring needs to be based on governmental needs and performance rather than merely political closeness or distance from Jokowi.

Prabowo should also maintain personal communications with the former president.

"Prabowo can also maintain a good relationship with Jokowi. Even though dynamics between the Hambalang and Solo factions are often interpreted as political tension leading to 2029, maintaining personal communication with Jokowi remains crucial to prevent polarization among supporters at both grassroots and elite levels," he emphasized.

Maintaining this relationship can help prevent differences in elite interests from escalating into tensions among their respective supporters.

Jamiluddin believes that Prabowo should frame Gibran's resignation as a political decision to be respected and not as a severance of ties with the Jokowi family.

For Jokowi, the next challenge is to prove that his political influence can endure without relying on Gibran’s position in the government.