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After Gibran Steps Down, Two Names for One Seat

This article was translated by AI. Read the original article on Kompas.com. See Original

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Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka(MARCO LONGARI)

If there is a tie, the election will be repeated once. If it remains tied, the president will select one of them (1945 Constitution, Article 8 paragraph (2), and Law No. 17 of 2014, Article 46).

Gerindra holds 86 seats in the House, while Golkar has 102. If PKB, PAN, and Demokrat support the same name along with the two, their combined total reaches 348 seats.

For comparison, 367 is the absolute majority out of the 732 MPR members at the beginning of the period.

In the session, the outcome will be determined by a majority vote. If the faction support is split, the choice of 152 DPD members, representing diverse regional interests, could determine the result (KPU Decision No. 1205, August 25, 2024, and Ministry of PANRB, October 1, 2024).

If Prabowo wishes to maintain the coalition's structure, Bahlil Lahadalia holds one of the strongest bargaining positions. The 102 Golkar seats provide the President ample reason to consider its chairman.

This same strength prompts coalition partners to calculate their positions. A chairman of a large party sitting next to the President brings its own leverage ahead of 2029.

Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, as the Deputy Chairman of the House, has experience in inter-faction negotiations.

If the presidential and vice-presidential seats are both occupied by Gerindra cadres, coalition partners will reassess their room in the government (JPNN, November 10, 2026, and Alinea, November 11, 2026).

The nomination of Puan Maharani could change the negotiation dynamics if Prabowo wants to open a new agreement with the PDI-P, which holds 110 House seats.

Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono finds himself with a narrower path. Demokrat has 44 seats.

AHY's chances may open if the larger parties fail to agree on a primary candidate and are willing to support him.

Stronger cues will come from the factions' stance outside their own parties (JPNN, November 10, 2026, Alinea, November 11, 2026, and KPU Decision No. 1205, August 25, 2024).

Then, why not Anies Baswedan?

The rules give Prabowo room to propose him. In 2024, Anies and Muhaimin Iskandar garnered 40,971,906 votes or 24.95% of the valid national votes.

Nominating Anies could be a way for Prabowo to reach voters who previously stood across the divide.