BMKG Natural Disaster Study For East Java Panics Indonesian Netizens

Nonetheless, Daryono admitted that BMKG, along with other institutions or individuals, does not know when or where natural disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis will strike. He also highlighted the difference between potential and prediction.

“Potential emphasizes on the location and scale of the threat. Prediction is the first two factors as well as when [the natural] disaster will happen,” Daryono maintained.

“As for potential, [the tsunami and earthquake] can happen anytime, from the next few years, decades or even hundreds of years. Potential natural disasters can happen in Sumatra, the rest of Java, Bali, and the islands of Lombok and Sumba, not just East Java.”

A dissenting opinion

However, Indonesian Institute of Sciences or LIPI earthquake expert Danny Hilman Natawijaya is skeptical of BMKG’s findings. “The BMKG review is not valid academically until they publish their findings,” he said.

Danny added that acknowledged the existence of the megathrust plate on the southern, or Indian Ocean coast of Java and Sumatra that is expected to bring about the major earthquake and tsunami.

He pointed out that the recent earthquakes that hit East Java was not caused by the megathrust plates. “I am more concerned about a potential earthquake in [West Sumatra]. The earthquakes there are cause for concern, as the megathrust is located there,” Danny said.

Indonesia is located in the Ring of Fire, a part of the Indo-Pacific region that is vulnerable to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters.

(Writers: Nur Rohmi Aida, Ahmad Naufal Dzulfaroh | Editors: Rizal Setyo Nugroho, Rendika Ferri Kurniawan)

Sources: 

https://www.kompas.com/tren/read/2021/06/04/094000465/ramai-potensi-gempa-87-sr-dan-tsunami-29-meter-di-jawa-timur-ini-penjelasan?page=all#page2. 

https://www.kompas.com/tren/read/2021/06/04/153000665/ramai-potensi-gempa-dan-tsunami-29-meter-di-jatim-ini-kata-ahli-lipi?page=all#page2.