The Price of Prabowo's Consolidation

THERE are weeks when politics moves faster than our ability to digest it. The beginning of November is one of those times.

In just ten days, Listyo Sigit Prabowo, the former Chief of Police who recently took office as Chief of Staff to the President, was detained by the Criminal Investigation Agency as a suspect in an illegal wiretapping case against the President.

Then, on Monday, November 9, three cadres from the Indonesian Solidarity Party in the cabinet—Raja Juli Antoni, Giring Ganesha, and Isyana Bagoes Oka—simultaneously departed from the party.

Three days later, Gibran Rakabuming Raka personally submitted his resignation letter as Vice President to the People's Consultative Assembly.

At first glance, this sequence of events appears to represent a nearly perfect victory. One by one, the connections in Joko Widodo’s government are being severed, while President Prabowo Subianto remains untouched.

He seems to be at the peak of his power, unaffected by the waves of demands that are pulling his deputy down.

However, it is here that the questions begin. Is Prabowo really that strong? If he is, what kind of strength is he building, and what is the cost he must pay?

Quiet Consolidation

None of this happened overnight. The pattern has been apparent since the reshuffle in September 2025, when Budi Arie Setiadi, the chairman of the Projo volunteers, was removed along with Sri Mulyani and Dito Ariotedjo.

The October 2026 reshuffle solidified this; Pratikno, one of Jokowi's closest aides, was removed from the Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture position, while Listyo Sigit was no longer leading the National Police.

The palace has repeatedly denied that this overhaul aimed to remove the previous administration's officials. While this denial deserves to be noted, the results are hard to overlook.

Two years ago, Jokowi's popularity helped carry Prabowo to the palace, and Gibran's candidacy was the most tangible result of their cooperation. Now, that bond is being unraveled piece by piece.

Nonetheless, we must be cautious not to interpret all this as a scenario orchestrated from a single table.

The wiretapping case is still in the legal process, and investigators have yet to reveal its motives. The Supreme Court's ruling regarding Gibran's educational document is also not a palace decision.

It is more likely that Prabowo did not create every event but skillfully capitalized on them. He knows when to wait, when to let processes unfold, and when to make decisions.

In politics, the ability to read the moment often matters more than the ability to plan.