This Week's IHSG: Capturing Rebound Opportunities Amid Foreign Selling Pressure

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is projected to remain in a consolidation phase with a tendency toward volatility.

The IHSG closed on Friday (18/9/2026) at 6,441 after declining again by 0.33 percent, while most Asian markets strengthened. This shows that the current issues affecting the IHSG are not solely driven by external sentiment.

Capital market observer and Republic Investor founder, Hendra Wardana, explained that foreign fund outflows, which recorded a net sell of around Rp 2.9 trillion throughout the week, remain a major burden on the market.

“Therefore, every IHSG rally still has the potential to be used by investors for profit taking or position liquidation,” he said in a written statement on Monday (21/9/2026).

As such, the room for an increase or rebound remains open but is not yet strong enough to immediately push the IHSG into a solid bullish trend.

“I expect the IHSG to move within the range of 6,350–6,600 this week, with 6,350–6,400 as key support and 6,500–6,600 as resistance,” he added.

As long as it stays above 6,350, the chance for a technical rebound is still open. Meanwhile, breaking through 6,600 would signal a more positive shift in momentum.

Hendra views global sentiment as a crucial factor that will determine market direction. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike makes investors reassess US monetary policy, especially given ongoing inflation concerns.

This situation means the US dollar and US bond yields are likely to continue exerting pressure on emerging markets, including Indonesia.

On the other hand, Brent crude oil prices have dropped to around 102.68 US dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to approximately 100.08 US dollars per barrel, providing some breathing space as worries over supply disruptions subside.

If oil prices continue to decline, global inflationary pressure could ease, potentially improving risk appetite sentiment.

Nevertheless, war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain risks since oil prices are still at elevated levels.

Domestically, the rupiah’s movement around Rp 17,758 per US dollar, foreign fund flows, interest rate policy developments, and Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) issues will also be determining factors. Under these conditions, the IHSG remains highly sensitive to shifts in global sentiment and movements in large-cap stocks.

From a technical perspective, the IHSG needs to reclaim momentum above 6,500 to open space for a stronger rise.

The 6,400 area serves as initial support, while 6,350 is a more critical support level. If selling pressure intensifies again and the IHSG falls below 6,350, the risk of weakening towards 6,200–6,250 will open up.

Conversely, if the index can hold above 6,400 and then break through 6,500, the chance to test 6,550–6,600 increases substantially.

“This means that trading this week will still be a battle between bargain hunting and foreign selling pressure,” he noted.

Hendra advised investors not to aggressively chase gains, but rather to be selective in using corrections to enter stocks with strong fundamental catalysts or trading momentum.

Stock Recommendations for This Week

Among interesting stocks to watch, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) is a speculative buy with a target price of 5,200. The nickel commodity outlook and expectations for downstream development act as catalysts maintaining investor interest in this stock.

However, since commodity-based stocks remain highly sensitive to commodity price movements and global sentiment, a disciplined risk strategy is advised for INCO.

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI) is also worth attention with a trading buy recommendation and a target price of 1,650.

MAPI’s exposure to retail and consumption businesses can serve as a catalyst if domestic sentiment and expectations over community purchasing power improve.

Meanwhile, PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) is recommended as a trading buy with a target price of 580, especially if momentum returns to commodity-based stocks.

PT Mitratel Tbk (MTEL) is also attractive for consideration with a trading buy and target price of 550. The relatively defensive nature of the telecommunications tower business can provide balance as the market faces pressure from global macro factors.

“Overall, I see next week not as a momentum to aggressively chase IHSG gains but rather a phase for selective buying,” Hendra said.

The index’s key movement lies in maintaining the 6,350–6,400 area and regaining a position above 6,500.

When foreign selling pressure eases, the rupiah stabilizes, oil prices continue to fall, and global sentiment improves, the chance for IHSG to rebound toward 6,600 will widen.

However, as long as foreign net selling remains substantial and global interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical risks stay high, the better strategy is to focus on stocks with strong catalysts and use corrections as accumulation opportunities.

“Not chasing prices when the market is rallying,” he concluded.

Disclaimer: This article is not an invitation to buy or sell stocks. All recommendations and stock analyses originate from the respective securities analysts, and Kompas.com is not responsible for any profits or losses incurred. Investment decisions are solely the responsibility of investors. Please ensure thorough research before making investment decisions.