El Niño Remains Very Strong, BMKG Warns of Thunderstorms Across Several West Java Regions

BANDUNG, KOMPAS.com - The very strong El Niño phenomenon continues to influence weather conditions in West Java, resulting in generally low rainfall levels across the region.

Nonetheless, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that several areas in West Java are still at risk of experiencing moderate rain accompanied by lightning or thunder, as well as local strong winds from September 21 to 27, 2026.

Head of BMKG Bandung, Edi Wibowo, stated that atmospheric conditions over the coming week show increased humidity compared to the previous week.

The humidity at the 850-700 millibar layer is expected to range between 40 and 95 percent.

"For the upcoming week, the NINO 3.4 index is around 2.51. Humidity at the 850-700 mb layer is projected between 40-95 percent, indicating an increase from last week," said Edi on Sunday (20/9/2026).

Increased Humidity Maintains Chance of Local Rain

According to Edi, the rise in atmospheric humidity is a key factor enabling the formation of rain clouds over several parts of West Java.

The sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to be between minus 3.0 and plus 3.5 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, atmospheric instability conditions are categorized as light to moderate.

"Sea surface temperature anomalies range from -3.0 to 3.5 °C with atmospheric instability varying from light to moderate levels, which increases the likelihood of local rainfall in some areas," he explained.

Despite the increase in humidity, BMKG noted that overall rainfall in West Java generally remains low.

Light rain can still occur locally in some areas.

"In general, rainfall in West Java is still relatively low; however, the potential for locally light rain is forecasted in some regions of West Java," Edi added.

List of West Java Areas with Rain and Lightning Potential

BMKG also identified several areas likely to experience moderate rainfall accompanied by lightning or thunder and localized strong winds of relatively short duration.

On Monday (21/9/2026), this potential exists in Bogor Regency, Cianjur Regency, and both Sukabumi Regency and City.

On Tuesday (22/9/2026), moderate rain with thunder and strong winds is forecasted for Bogor Regency, Cianjur Regency, and Sukabumi Regency.