El Niño Remains Very Strong, BMKG Warns of Thunderstorms Across Several West Java Regions

BANDUNG, KOMPAS.com - The very strong El Niño phenomenon continues to influence weather conditions in West Java, resulting in generally low rainfall levels across the region.

Nonetheless, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that several areas in West Java are still at risk of experiencing moderate rain accompanied by lightning or thunder, as well as local strong winds from September 21 to 27, 2026.

Head of BMKG Bandung, Edi Wibowo, stated that atmospheric conditions over the coming week show increased humidity compared to the previous week.

The humidity at the 850-700 millibar layer is expected to range between 40 and 95 percent.

"For the upcoming week, the NINO 3.4 index is around 2.51. Humidity at the 850-700 mb layer is projected between 40-95 percent, indicating an increase from last week," said Edi on Sunday (20/9/2026).

Increased Humidity Maintains Chance of Local Rain

According to Edi, the rise in atmospheric humidity is a key factor enabling the formation of rain clouds over several parts of West Java.

The sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to be between minus 3.0 and plus 3.5 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, atmospheric instability conditions are categorized as light to moderate.

"Sea surface temperature anomalies range from -3.0 to 3.5 °C with atmospheric instability varying from light to moderate levels, which increases the likelihood of local rainfall in some areas," he explained.

Despite the increase in humidity, BMKG noted that overall rainfall in West Java generally remains low.

Light rain can still occur locally in some areas.

"In general, rainfall in West Java is still relatively low; however, the potential for locally light rain is forecasted in some regions of West Java," Edi added.

List of West Java Areas with Rain and Lightning Potential

BMKG also identified several areas likely to experience moderate rainfall accompanied by lightning or thunder and localized strong winds of relatively short duration.

On Monday (21/9/2026), this potential exists in Bogor Regency, Cianjur Regency, and both Sukabumi Regency and City.

On Tuesday (22/9/2026), moderate rain with thunder and strong winds is forecasted for Bogor Regency, Cianjur Regency, and Sukabumi Regency.

For Wednesday (23/9/2026), similar conditions are expected in Bogor Regency and City, as well as Sukabumi Regency.

On Thursday (24/9/2026), the potential for moderate rain with thunder and strong winds is predicted in Karawang Regency and Purwakarta Regency.

Meanwhile, on Friday (25/9/2026), the areas at risk of moderate rain accompanied by lightning or thunder and strong winds include Purwakarta Regency, Cianjur Regency, Sukabumi Regency, and West Bandung Regency.

El Niño Continues to Suppress Rainfall

Nationally, BMKG projects rainfall across most of Indonesia to remain low to moderate, ranging from 0 to 150 millimeters per ten-day period through the second ten-day period of October 2026.

The very strong El Niño phenomenon is a significant factor limiting moisture supply to Indonesia.

This condition hinders optimal cloud formation, allowing dry weather to persist in several areas.

However, atmospheric dynamics during certain periods can still enhance cloud growth and trigger localized rainfall.

Therefore, although rainfall is generally low due to El Niño’s influence, there remains the possibility of moderate to heavy localized rain when atmospheric conditions are favorable.

BMKG Warns of Dry Season Impacts

Amid the possibility of local rain, BMKG urges the public to remain alert to the impacts of the dry season.

Key concerns include reduced clean water availability, drought affecting agricultural land, and an increase in hotspots that could trigger forest and land fires.

"The public is advised to increase vigilance against the effects of the dry season, such as declining clean water supplies, drought in farming areas, as well as a rise in hotspots that may cause forest and land fires (karhutla)," Edi cautioned.

Part of this article originally appeared on TribunJabar.id under the title "Strong El Niño Effect, BMKG Warns of Potential Lightning Rain in West Java for the Coming Week".