German Economy Rebounding Faster Than Expected in 2020

BERLIN, KOMPAS.com – The economic devastation stemming from the coronavirus pandemic on the German economy is expected to be less severe than originally feared.

Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that the German government’s strong response helped fuel a quicker than expected recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

He also presented the government’s updated forecasts on Tuesday. Despite the upbeat news, sluggish foreign demand is likely to weaken the rebound in Europe’s largest economy in 2021.

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"The recession in the first half of the year turned out to be less severe than we had feared," Altmaier told reporters, adding that the worst was over for the economy.

"Overall, we can say that at least for now, we are dealing with a V-shaped development," Altmaier said. He added that he did not expect authorities to impose another round of lockdown measures as in March and April.

Confirming an earlier Reuters report, Altmaier said Berlin had revised upwards its 2020 forecast to a decline of 5.8 percent from a previous estimate of -6.3 percent.

That would still represent the biggest economic slump since World War Two. The German economy contracted by 5.7 percent in 2009 as the global financial crisis unfolded.

For 2021, the government revised downward its growth forecast to an expansion of 4.4 percent from its previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

This means the economy will not reach its pre-pandemic size before early 2022, Altmaier said.

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The government expects exports to tumble by 12.1 percent this year before jumping by 8.8 percent in 2021. Private consumption is seen falling by 6.9 percent this year and then rising by 4.7 percent in 2021.

Suspending debt limits

The revised forecasts will form the basis of tax revenue estimates, which the finance ministry is expected to update next week.

This will be followed by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz's proposal for the federal government's budget in 2021.

Scholz has already said he will ask parliament to suspend constitutionally enshrined debt limits next year so that the government can plan its 2021 budget with new debt as it sees necessary.

Germany's Bundestag lower house of parliament suspended the debt brake in March and June to allow the government to borrow an additional €217.8 billion this year.

The government has launched an unprecedented array of rescue and stimulus measures since March to shield companies and consumers from the initial impact of the pandemic and help them recover as quickly as possible.

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The economy contracted by a record 9.7 percent in the second quarter as consumer spending, company investment, and exports all collapsed.

Germany fared better than some other Eurozone economies, however. The French economy contracted by 13.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period and Italy's shrank by 12.8 percent.

The German central bank expects household spending to drive a strong recovery in the third quarter, helped by stimulus measures including a temporary cut in value-added tax.

The Ifo economic institute predicts the economy will rebound with a quarterly growth rate of some 7 percent in July-September.

(Writer: Christian Kraemer | Editors: Gareth Jones, Catherine Evans)

Source: https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-economy/germany-sees-economy-recovering-faster-than-expected-in-2020-idINKBN25S4PF