BMKG Head: Very Strong El Nino Expected to Last Until Early 2027

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the El Nino phenomenon remains very strong and will persist into early 2027.

BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani said this condition is one of the factors influencing Indonesia's rainy season dynamics for 2026–2027.

"Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean for July, August, and September 2026 showed a value of 2.63, which indicates the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is in a very strong El Nino phase," Teuku said during a press conference at the BMKG Office, Kemayoran Central Jakarta, Tuesday (9/22/2026).

"This ENSO condition is predicted to persist in the El Nino phase until early 2027," he added.

Teuku explained that BMKG uses these climatic dynamics as one of the foundations to predict the 2026–2027 rainy season.

Amid strong El Nino conditions, BMKG forecasts that the onset of the 2026-2027 rainy season will occur gradually.

"Most areas in Indonesia are predicted to enter the rainy season in November 2026, encompassing 185 seasonal zones (ZOM), or 24.66 percent of Indonesia’s land area," he said.

Meanwhile, the rainy season onset is expected to be delayed in most other parts of Indonesia, across 529 seasonal zones (ZOM), or 61.08 percent of the land area.

BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan added that the start of the rainy season in Indonesia never occurs simultaneously across all regions.

"Generally, it is predicted to be delayed or later than normal," he said.

Ardhasena noted that most of Indonesia is expected to experience the peak rainy season in December 2026, January 2027, and February 2027.

BMKG urged the public to remain vigilant during this period, as surges in rainfall during the peak rainy season could potentially trigger floods and landslides.

"We need to jointly be cautious of the surge in rainfall this rainy season, which could result in secondary impacts such as flooding and landslides," he said.