JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – The Indonesian economy could see a growth of 3-5 percent in 2021 now that the country has obtained Covid-19 vaccines.
The optimistic forecast came from the Indonesian Employers Association (APINDO) which said that the faster the Covid-19 epidemic ends in the country, the more likely economic growth will occur.
Indonesia is getting ready to roll out its Covid-19 vaccination program that will be free of charge for all citizens.
The distribution of the booster is projected to begin by the end of 2020 or early next year and will be further intensified until the second quarter.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has announced that he will be the first patient to receive the Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine in Indonesia although there are plenty of logistical challenges to inoculate the total population of nearly 180 million people.
Indonesia’s Covid-19 vaccination program is hoped to run smoothly and to help better control the spread of the novel virus. If coronavirus cases dwindle, the Indonesian economy would fare a better chance of recovering.
“Our projection and its realization of the national economy in 2021 will be highly dependent on the mechanism for the availability and effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccine,” stated APINDO Chairman Hariyadi Sukamdani.
Hariyadi said that the wide range behind APINDO’s prediction for national economic growth is due to the complexities of several factors that can influence the economy.
APINDO said that it will continue to assess the development of the Covid-19 epidemic and mitigation efforts as well as its contribution to the realization of national economic recovery efforts in 2021.
As for 2020, APINDO expects the national economy to contract between 1.45 percent and 2.8 percent.
Hariyadi said that the coronavirus pandemic has altered this year’s economic growth forecasts, as it was battered by the pandemic beginning in the first half. It shrank 5.32 percent in the second quarter coming from a growth of 2.97 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
The nation's economic performance continued to dip in the third quarter with a 3.49 percent contraction, and Indonesia’s business community expects that the economy will likely remain in the red in the final quarter.
“The results lead us to predict that economic growth in Indonesia this year will most likely be in the negative territory.”
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