Roe v. Wade Reversal a Real Threat following Death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg

WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com – The passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg so close to a presidential election makes the threat of reversing Roe v. Wade very real.

It's been a throwaway line in presidential campaigns for years, but this time it is on the ballot.

The empty seat at the Supreme Court coupled with President Donald Trump’s political move to reinvigorate social conservatives in key states provided a new frame for Trump’s case for a second term.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death and the spark over the Roe v. Wade debate has also animated supporters of abortion rights at least as much.

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If Trump is able to install his nominee in that seat, both sides agree there’s a better chance than ever that Roe v. Wade — the 1973 decision established a nationwide right to abortion — could be overturned or gutted.

“We have been apprehensive for years, but this is more worrisome — this is a seismic shift,” said Jennifer Dalven, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Reproductive Freedom Project.

During his 2016 campaign, Trump, who had previously expressed unqualified support for abortion rights, won over skeptical anti-abortion leaders with multiple pledges to combat abortion, including choosing Supreme Court justices open to dismantling Roe v. Wade.

Now, with Trump hoping to fill a vacancy for the third time and give the nine-member court six conservative justices, that pledge has new import.

“It is at least conceivable for the first time that we have a majority that would overturn Roe, and the battle would return to the states,” said Andrew Bath, executive vice president of the Thomas More Society, a conservative public interest law firm.

It remains uncertain if the Senate will hold a confirmation vote before the November 3 election, and how it would respond if Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden before the vacancy is filled.

But Trump has urged the Senate to move quickly, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said there will be a vote on Trump's nominee.

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If a Trump nominee is confirmed and a reconfigured high court did eventually overturn Roe, the likely outcome would be a patchwork of laws in various states.

Some states would protect abortion access, others would enact near-total bans, and many would struggle over what new limits they might impose.