JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Morgan Stanley said Indonesia could be ranked in the second-fastest group of countries in Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) to experience economic recovery. Other countries in the group include the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan, and India.
“These countries could return to their pre-pandemic economic level in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021,” said investment banking company Morgan Stanley in a study titled “Asia Economic Mid-Year Outlook” as quoted by Kontan.co.id on Monday, June 22.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley showed China could lead the economic recovery. China was the first country affected by Covid-19, but it could also be the first coronavirus-free country. China’s economy is projected to return to the pre-pandemic economic level in the third quarter of 2020.
Ranked in the third group are Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. These countries are predicted to return to their pre-pandemic economic level during the second quarter of 2021.
The study showed three factors affecting the speed of economic recovery. First, the impact of the global economic growth on the country’s economic growth structure.
Second, the effectiveness of each country’s responses to deal with the negative effects of Covid-19. “This includes how effective is the country’s response in maintaining domestic demand,” said Morgan Stanley.
Finally, it added, flexibility on policies that will be needed at any time in coping with the Covid-19 challenges.
Indonesia’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati previously said that the country’s 2020 growth projections have been revised from 2.3 percent to around one percent with an estimated contraction of 0.4 percent.
Sri Mulyani said Indonesia had faced significant contraction in the second quarter. The growth, however, was expected to recover at around zero percent in the third quarter, she said.
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